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Steel Market Morning Post: High Temperature and Rainy Season, Mentality Restoration, Steel Price Continuing Weak Operation

2019/9/23

Guide reading
Last week, the overall black sector fell, with coke and coke falling by 9.91% and 9.0% respectively, followed by threads, which fell by 6.60%. The central bank: monetary policy is not loose; CPI expected to rise slightly in May, investment growth or rebound; China's real estate market entered the "five-limit era" analysis said that the regulation policy is unbalanced; Beijing and Shanghai second-hand housing prices fell simultaneously. China and Europe will further strengthen economic and trade cooperation; Li Keqiang: It is not objective and fair to blame China for excess capacity; and the price of imported iron ore has fallen to a stage low.
market
1. As of June 2, the average price of 20mm HRB400E for thread steel in 24 major markets in China was 3826 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.14% and a rise of 73.20% year on year; the average price of 4.75 hot rolled coil in 24 major markets in China was 3309 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.78% and a rise of 28.31% year on year; and the average price of 14-20mm medium plate in 23 major markets in China was 3375 yuan./ The average price of 1.0mm cold rolled sheet coil in 23 major markets in China is 3816 yuan/ton, which is 0.91% lower and 24.54% higher than that of the previous year.
Comments: Last week, the black futures such as snail and iron ore fell sharply, the market atmosphere was obvious, and the spot price fell at a high level. Although most kinds of social inventory in the spot market are still at a low level at the present stage, it is difficult to be optimistic on the demand side. At present, orders from downstream manufacturers and terminal merchants are not optimistic, which partly indicates that it is difficult to accept orders. For this week's market, near the high temperature and rainy season, downstream demand is released or restricted, while market funds are still facing tensions, negative factors are gradually increasing, market mentality needs time to adjust and repair, steel prices are expected to continue to run in a weak position this week.
2. Tangshan Pu square billet fell 50 yuan to 3030 yuan/ton (30 yuan on the 3rd day and 20 yuan on the 4th day); last Friday, 62% Pu's iron ore index reported 57.4 dollars, up 1.0 dollars.
3. Last Friday, the main threads of night trading fell 26% and 6.60% weekly; the main threads of hot coil fell 19% and 3.34% weekly; the main iron ore rose 12.5% and 5.40% weekly; the main coke rose 11% and 9.91% weekly; the main coke rose 12.5% and 9.0% weekly. (Note: The range of increase and decrease of all main contracts is the difference between the settlement price of the previous day and the settlement price of the previous day)
4. Last Friday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index reported 3105.54 points, up 0.09%, with a turnover of 154.454 billion yuan. Shenzhen Stock Exchange reported 9794.89 points, up 0.66%, trading volume 186.781 billion. GEM reported 1745.93 points, up 1.01%, with turnover of 53.593 billion. The total turnover of the two cities was 34.235 billion.
5. The dollar index was at its lowest level in the first seven months, reaching 96.68 at 05:59 on June 4, Beijing time. Last Friday, the mid-price of RMB against the dollar was 6.8070 yuan, up 0.03% and 0.91% weekly.
6. Last Friday, London metal shocked, with Ronton copper falling 0.19% to $5688 a ton and Ronton aluminium rising 0.23% to $1931.5 a ton. Renni rose 0.74% to $8905 per ton. Lunz fell 1.32% to $2536 a ton.
7. Last Friday, WTI crude oil futures fell 1.45% in July to $47.66 a barrel, down 4.3% a week.
Macro micro
1. Li Bo, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank: Steady and neutral monetary policy embodies the principle of "neither tight nor loose" in the actual implementation process. Imperfect means that monetary policy supports the normal and reasonable growth of the economy, maintains the basic stability of liquidity, maintains the basic stability of the financial system, and prevents the occurrence of systemic financial risks. Imperfect means the need for zombie enterprises to dispose of and defuse excess capacity.
2. Xinhua News Agency: The second-hand housing market in the key cities represented by Beijing and Shanghai has been cold. Under the influence of strict regulation and control policies, the effect of curbing speculation has begun to show, and the first and second-tier housing market has entered the adjustment cycle. At present, the second-hand housing transactions in Beijing and Shanghai tend to be "buyer's market".
3. Xinhua News Agency: At the end of the 19th China-EU Leaders'Meeting on February 2, the two sides approved the work plan for the implementation of the road map for energy cooperation between China and Europe from 2017 to 2018, and agreed to focus on cooperation in energy policy and energy efficiency standard-setting, low-carbon energy technology, renewable energy, energy regulation and energy networking.
industry
1. Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council: Overcapacity is a cyclical phenomenon under the conditions of market economy, a structural problem and a global problem. Instead of subsidizing steel exports, China began to take a series of measures to control exports 10 years ago. It is neither objective nor fair to blame China for overcapacity.
2. Xinhua: In the last week, the domestic spot steel price composite index closed at 129.27 points, down 0.81% in a week. At present, although the stock pressure in the steel market is not too great and the arrival of new resources still takes time, the market expects that the speed of steel plant's re-production will be accelerated, and the contradiction between supply and demand in the later period of the steel market is still prominent.
3. Last Friday, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index fell 2.35%, to 830 points, a weekly decline of 8.99%.




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